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Sequence of Returns Calculator

See why WHEN you get returns matters as much as the returns themselves. The same average return can lead to vastly different outcomes.

Starting Portfolio

Annual Withdrawal

Return Scenarios

Average Annual Return5.0%

Both scenarios have this exact same average return

Sequence Matters: Final Portfolio Values

Bull Then Bear
$1.41M

Good returns early, bad returns later

Bear Then Bull
Depleted Year 17

Bad returns early, good returns later

Difference
$1.41M
100% more with good returns early

Portfolio Value Over Time

$3.03M$1.52M$0
Bull Then Bear
Bear Then Bull

Scenario Summary

Initial Portfolio$1,000,000
Annual Withdrawal$50,000
Total Withdrawals (20 years)$1,000,000
Average Return (Same for Both)5.0%

Key Insight: Gold Reduces Sequence Risk

Gold's low correlation to stocks means it often rises when stocks fall. During the 2008 crisis, gold gained 5.5% while stocks lost 37%. A 10-15% gold allocation can protect your portfolio from devastating early losses that compound over decades.

This "portfolio insurance" is particularly valuable in early retirement when sequence of returns risk is highest.

What is Sequence of Returns Risk?

Sequence of returns risk is one of the most misunderstood threats to retirement security. It demonstrates that when you receive investment returns matters just as much as the returns themselves.

Bull-Then-Bear Scenario

Strong returns early grow your portfolio significantly. Even when bad years come later, you're withdrawing from a much larger base. Your wealth survives.

Bear-Then-Bull Scenario

Poor returns early shrink your portfolio while you're still withdrawing. By the time good years arrive, you're growing a much smaller base. Your wealth suffers.

The Real-World Example

Two retirees with identical portfolios and identical 30-year average returns can end up with vastly different outcomes. One might have $2 million left; the other might run out of money in year 20. The only difference? When the good and bad years occurred.

How to Protect Against Sequence Risk

Gold Allocation (10-15%)

Gold often moves opposite to stocks during crashes, providing a buffer against early sequence risk.

Cash Reserve (1-2 Years)

Maintain enough cash to avoid selling stocks during downturns.

Flexible Withdrawal Strategy

Reduce withdrawals by 10-20% during market downturns to preserve capital.

Bond Ladder

Guaranteed income from bonds can cover essential expenses regardless of stock performance.

Lower Initial Withdrawal Rate

Starting at 3.5% instead of 4% provides a significant buffer against poor early returns.

Part-Time Income

Even modest income in early retirement reduces reliance on portfolio withdrawals.

Protect Your Retirement from Sequence Risk

A Gold IRA provides crucial protection during the vulnerable early years of retirement. When stocks crash, gold typically holds its value or rises, giving you a stable asset to draw from instead of selling stocks at a loss.

RECOMMENDED

Protect your retirement from devastating early losses. Augusta Precious Metals can help you add gold to your IRA as insurance against sequence of returns risk.

Learn More