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Monte Carlo Retirement Simulator

Run 1,000 simulations to see the probability of your retirement plan succeeding. Understand how asset allocation affects your odds.

Current Situation

Timeline

Asset Allocation

Stocks60%
Expected: 10% return, 18% volatility
Bonds25%
Expected: 5% return, 6% volatility
Cash5%
Expected: 2% return, 1% volatility
Gold10%
Expected: 7.5% return, 15% volatility
Total Allocation100%

Ready to Simulate

Configure your inputs and click "Run Monte Carlo Simulation" to see1,000 possible retirement outcomes.

Current Portfolio Stats

Expected Return
8.1%
Expected Volatility
11.0%

Understanding Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo simulation is a powerful technique that runs thousands of possible scenarios to estimate the probability of different outcomes. For retirement planning, it helps answer the critical question: "What are the odds my money will last?"

Probability-Based

Instead of a single projection, you get a range of outcomes with their probabilities.

Market Variability

Accounts for the unpredictable nature of market returns year-over-year.

Stress Testing

See how your plan holds up in worst-case scenarios, not just average ones.

What Success Rate Should You Target?

90%+

Excellent

High confidence your money will last. You may have room for more aggressive growth or increased spending.

75-89%

Good

Solid plan with reasonable buffer. Consider small adjustments for more safety margin.

50-74%

Caution

Plan may work but has significant risk. Consider reducing spending, working longer, or adjusting allocation.

<50%

High Risk

Plan unlikely to succeed. Major adjustments needed to spending, savings, or timeline.

How Gold Improves Success Rates

Reduces Volatility

Gold's low correlation to stocks smooths out portfolio returns over time.

Protects Worst Cases

In market crashes, gold often rises, protecting your 10th percentile outcomes.

Inflation Hedge

Gold maintains purchasing power over decades of retirement.

Sequence Risk Buffer

Provides assets to draw from during early retirement market downturns.

Research Finding: Adding 10% gold to a traditional 60/40 portfolio historically increased Monte Carlo success rates by 3-5% while reducing the worst-case (10th percentile) outcomes by up to 15%.
RECOMMENDED

Boost your retirement success probability with gold. Augusta Precious Metals can help you add this crucial diversifier to your IRA.

Learn More