Ted Butler on Silver
The Pioneer of Silver Manipulation Research
For over 30 years, Ted Butler has documented and exposed silver price manipulation. His relentless research into COMEX positioning and bank short positions has shaped how a generation of investors understands the silver market.
Who Is Ted Butler?
Ted Butler is an independent precious metals analyst who has spent over three decades researching and documenting silver price manipulation. He is widely credited as the pioneer of silver manipulation research, having first identified suspicious trading patterns in the 1980s.
Unlike many commentators who speak in generalities about "the banks" or "the system," Butler names names. His research specifically identifies JP Morgan as holding the largest concentrated short position in silver market history, a position he argues is used to artificially suppress prices.
Butler has filed numerous complaints with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over the years, documenting what he sees as blatant manipulation. While the CFTC initially dismissed his claims, the 2020 JP Morgan settlement for $920 million vindicated many of his accusations.
Ted Butler Quick Facts
- 30+ years researching silver manipulation
- First to identify JP Morgan's silver short position
- Filed numerous CFTC complaints on manipulation
- Publishes weekly COT analysis for subscribers
- Claims vindicated by 2020 JP Morgan settlement
Butler's COMEX Analysis
The core of Butler's research focuses on the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports published by the CFTC. These reports reveal the positions held by different categories of traders on the COMEX futures exchange.
Concentrated Short Positions
Butler's key insight is that a small number of banks hold massive concentrated short positions in silver - positions that are larger relative to market size than in any other commodity. He argues these positions are not legitimate hedges but rather tools for price suppression.
"No legitimate market participant needs to short more silver than exists in annual global mine production. These are not hedges. These are tools of manipulation."
The JP Morgan Position
Butler traces JP Morgan's silver short position to the 2008 Bear Stearns collapse. When JP Morgan acquired Bear Stearns, they inherited what Butler calculates as the largest silver short position in history. Rather than cover this position, he argues JP Morgan has used it to manipulate prices ever since.
Price Suppression Patterns
Butler documents recurring patterns in silver trading: sudden, sharp price drops during thin trading hours; prices that rise slowly then crash quickly; and bank positions that increase on price rises only to be covered on engineered price declines.
The JP Morgan Accusations
Butler has been the most persistent voice accusing JP Morgan of silver manipulation. His specific claims include:
- Concentrated Short Position: JP Morgan holds the largest silver short position ever recorded, often equivalent to months of global mine production.
- Price Suppression: This position is used to cap silver prices whenever they threaten to break out, engineering sudden price crashes.
- Regulatory Capture: The CFTC has failed to act because of the "too big to fail" status of JP Morgan.
- Physical Accumulation: While suppressing paper prices, JP Morgan has allegedly accumulated one of the largest physical silver hoards in history.
The 2020 Vindication
In September 2020, JP Morgan paid $920 million to settle charges of manipulating precious metals and Treasury markets. While the settlement cited "spoofing" rather than concentrated short positions, it confirmed what Butler had been saying for years: JP Morgan was manipulating precious metals markets.
Butler views this as partial vindication but argues the real manipulation - the concentrated short position - remains unaddressed.
Key Quotes & Predictions
"JP Morgan is manipulating the silver market. This is not opinion, this is observable fact. They hold the largest concentrated short position in any commodity in history."
On JP Morgan's silver position
"The CFTC has failed in its duty to regulate the silver market. For over a decade, they have looked the other way while banks blatantly manipulate prices."
On regulatory failure
"Silver is the most undervalued asset on the planet. When the manipulation ends - and it will end - silver prices will explode to levels most cannot imagine."
On silver's future
"Physical silver will be the undoing of the paper manipulation. When enough investors demand delivery, the banks will be unable to cover their shorts."
On physical silver
Key Articles & Research
The JP Morgan Silver Manipulation
Butler's definitive analysis of how JP Morgan inherited Bear Stearns' silver short position in 2008 and has since held the largest concentrated short position in commodity market history.
CFTC Failures in Silver
Documentation of Butler's decades-long correspondence with the CFTC, including their repeated failures to address obvious manipulation despite clear evidence.
The Coming Silver Explosion
Analysis of why the current paper silver scheme cannot continue indefinitely and why physical silver demand will eventually force true price discovery.
COT Report Analysis
Butler's weekly analysis of the Commitment of Traders reports, tracking bank positions and identifying manipulation patterns in real-time.
Butler publishes regular analysis through his subscription service, with weekly updates on COT positioning and market developments.
What Ted Butler Recommends
Based on his analysis, Butler's recommendations are straightforward:
- Buy Physical Silver: The manipulation can only end when physical demand overwhelms the paper market. Every ounce of physical silver purchased contributes to this outcome.
- Hold Long-Term: Manipulation can persist longer than expected, but fundamentals eventually prevail. Patience is essential.
- Avoid Paper Silver: SLV and other paper products do not contribute to ending the manipulation. Only physical silver or fully allocated storage matters.
- Demand Accountability: Butler encourages investors to contact the CFTC and their representatives to demand investigation of silver manipulation.
Butler's Warning
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Ted Butler?
Ted Butler is an independent precious metals analyst who has spent over 30 years researching and documenting silver price manipulation. He is widely credited as the pioneer of silver manipulation research and has filed numerous complaints with the CFTC.
What is Ted Butler's thesis on silver manipulation?
Butler argues that silver prices are artificially suppressed through concentrated short positions held by major banks on the COMEX. He has specifically named JP Morgan as holding the largest short position in silver market history.
Was Ted Butler right about JP Morgan?
In 2020, JP Morgan paid $920 million to settle charges of manipulating precious metals markets. While regulators cited spoofing rather than concentrated shorts, the settlement validated years of Butler's claims that major banks were manipulating silver prices.
What does Ted Butler predict for silver?
Butler believes silver is the most undervalued asset in the world and predicts explosive price increases when the manipulation ends. He has suggested silver could reach several hundred dollars per ounce when true price discovery occurs.
Disclaimer: We are not affiliated with Ted Butler. The information presented is for educational purposes only and represents our interpretation of publicly available statements. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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